Weathering the storm
Hawkes Bay farmer and author of "Many a Muddy Morning" Mark Warren says the current trifecta of low commodity prices, high on-farm inflation, and high interest rates, coupled with the drought many farmers face, reminds him of the tough times of 1988.
Warren remembers those times well and has tips for farmers struggling in the current economic climate.
- Recognise what you can affect, like selling stock and reducing expenditure, and don't waste time, oxygen and energy on what you can't change, like the weather.
- Be light on your feet when taking on or holding extra stock.
- Learn to recognise the onset of a drought from a dry period and make multiple early plans. Watch the weather patterns and ask the wise old locals for their thoughts. There will be lots of opinions, but work with facts.
- Reduce expenditure hard and early.
- Be an autumn not a spring spender.
- Learn the rule of 72. Divide 72 by the interest rate you are paying, and the answer will be the number of years the debt will double.
- Over time, the average sustainable cost of capital is about 7.5 per cent. To be safe, I always do a stress test on a budget at 8.5 per cent. Currently, I'm glad I did that, although three years ago, people told me I was conservative and should do it at six per cent.
- Don't be one of those people who borrow money to buy a depreciating asset to show how wealthy you are. Leave that to the urbanites in the city rat race.
- Look around the yard and home and see what underutilised assets you can sell to generate cash.
- Farming is cyclical. History has proven that when you are at the bottom of the cycle, it's hard to see the top, and when you're at the top, it's hard to see the bottom. Keep a photo of a drought and flood on your office wall to remind you what a difference Mother Nature can make.
- Find a retired farmer or businessman to talk to and help you make key decisions. Making quality decisions is very hard work and tiring, but it's a very easy job to get help with.
- Take a big-picture, long-term view. Write it down for the bank. Overload them with positive but realistic information. Make sure the banks are informed of your position. Keep your file at the bottom of the bank's pile. If you give them quality information, they will support you. Deceive them and hold information back, and they will be harder to deal with.
- Debt is like booze: a great servant but a terrible master.
- Identify your cost of production and work from that. Maximum production is not necessarily maximum profit. Find the optimum marginal profit point on the production curve. Normally, about 85 per cent of maximum production. Understand fully the concept of marginal costing.
- Get off the farm and socialise with mates who aren't farmers. Often, the best antidote to a drought is to walk up and down Queen or Colombo Street for two days. Then you will be pleased to get back on the farm!
- There is huge support for farmers formally, like Rural Support and informally, in the form of friend groups. When I'm in trouble and struggling my four-wheel drive club mates are quick to come and help me. But YOU must askā¦. it's up to YOU to turn the key and get that support running in your direction. Often, all it takes is just a Facebook post asking some urban friends to come and help for a day on the farm in exchange for mutton (and at the current price, that can be cheap help!!), but recognise that they often have issues with mortgages, too.