A Federated Farmers' farmer confidence survey reveals a significant shift toward optimism in the sector compared to six months ago.

The January 2025 survey shows a rebound in farmer confidence, with a surge from  negative -66% in July 2024 to a net positive score of 2%.

This marks the largest single improvement since the question was first introduced in 2016.

Mid Canterbury Federated Farmers president David Acland describes the mood among farmers as "upbeat."

"Everyone is pretty positive.

"Even the sheep and beef guys, especially in Mid Canterbury.

"Prices are strong, and there is a positive outlook for beef and lamb this season."

The survey also revealed that 23% of farmers expect better economic conditions over the next year, representing the highest confidence level since January 2014.

This surge in confidence is attributed to several factors, including a relaxation of regulations, lower interest rates, and an increase in profitability.

54% of farmers reported making a profit—double the number from six months ago.

Many farmers are optimistic that this positive trend will continue, with 23% expecting favourable conditions to continue over the next year, the highest confidence level seen since 2014.

While the overall mood is positive, Federated Farmers acknowledges that the confidence boost is still fragile, remaining just above neutral.

"There are still massive headwinds," Acland cautioned.

"For sheep and beef farmers, there is still massive uncertainty out there."

The survey was conducted before the National Government's 2035 climate target announcement, which includes a 51-55% emissions reduction—a more ambitious target than those set by the previous government.

This has caused concern among some farmers.

Acland doesn't believe the survey results would have differed significantly had it been conducted after the announcement.

"It's still a long way out.

"If you look at where the Paris Agreement is at, there's a lot of water to go under the bridge before we get to that point in time."

Acland said that while social media posts suggested a high level of frustration among farmers about the climate change announcement, most farmers were not overly concerned.

"Yes, they worry, and they are interested, but they aren't obsessed by it."

However, Acland does believe the announcement may have shaken farmer confidence in the government itself.

"I don't think it's had an effect on farmer confidence, but I think it has had an effect on people's view of the National Government," he said.

Acland wasn't surprised by the government's announcement.

"I think we got exactly what I thought we were going to get.

"A complete regulation windback was never going to happen."

By Claire Inkson