The latest Federated Farmers Farm Confidence Survey shows that the much talked about “green shoots” of 2024 have led to a glimmer of hope in the agriculture sector in 2025.

A rise in commodity prices, lower interest rates, and a general ease in regulations have seen farmer confidence jump from -66% in July 2024 to  2%, the largest one-off improvement since 2016.

What Federated Farmers president Wayne Langford describes as a “shift in mood” can be mainly attributed to a blanket rise in farm profitability.

54% of farmers reported profits, compared with just 27% last year, and 23% expect better economic conditions this year—the highest confidence level since January 2014.

When the National government came into power, cutting red tape faster than a combine harvester in a field of wheat and promising to “back New Zealand farmers,” the relief in a sector that had been villainised and hog-tied by regulation from the previous government was palpable.

But is it really all rainbows and unicorns?

The Farmer Confidence survey is more than just an interesting measure of the temperature in the room.

If farmers are confident, they hire staff, spend, and invest in their farming business, and the economy grows.

The confidence level is still precariously low: 2% is hardly anything to crow about.

Not only is it low, but that confidence is a fragile thing.

Much of our gains are closely tied to global conditions, and issues like volatile weather and increasing input costs still exist.

Then there is the banking sector.

Federated Farmers believe that unless the government monitors the banking sector closely, farmers are likely to continue paying disproportionately high lending rates and being forced to reach climate change targets that banks have no right to ask of them.

Then, there is the elephant (or cow) in the room.

The National Party announced that it would not only impose a farming tax on agricultural emissions but also commit to an even more ambitious climate target than the previous government.

According to Federated Farmers, all that means is less stock and more pine trees in a country whose sheep numbers have dropped from 22 per capita in 1982 to below five in 2024.

So far, any calls for a split-gas approach for international targets, where short-lived methane is treated differently from long-lived carbon dioxide, have been ignored.

Organisations like the Methane Science Accord argue that the government is not backing farmers but setting targets to fix a problem that doesn’t exist while bringing the primary sector to its knees.

Meanwhile, David Seymour isn’t alone in believing that the government should withdraw from the Paris Accord.

Many farmers echo his views, seeing the global political stage in regard to climate change mitigation versus adaptation as a rapidly changing landscape that could disadvantage New Zealand farmers.

If farmer confidence is to continue to rise, the government must engage more deeply with the sector, ensuring that emission targets are realistic and science-led.

By Claire Inkson