Well, 2024, don't let the door hit you on the way out.

It's been a tough one, that's for sure.

A perfect storm of low commodity prices and high input costs has made farming tough, especially for sheep and beef farmers.

Comparisons to the 1980s were a reoccurring theme, with many farmers questioning the viability of staying in the industry and looking to forestry as a more profitable option.

Land use change remains a hot topic.

We have lost some good people too – there is far too long a list of rock solid, backbone of our industry legends who passed away last year, most before their time and who will be forever missed.

Alliance announced the closure of its Smithfield plant, and most of the sector's larger cooperatives posted significant losses.

And then there was the weather.

North Canterbury has been in a drought pretty much all year, and at the time of writing this, remains desperate for rain.

Southland, by contrast, has had far too much.

There was much talk of "Survive until 2025," the catchphrase we borrowed from the U.S. that implies that if we all just get through this year, things will improve.

But will they? Of course, there is no crystal ball, but there are what is being called "green shoots" (another well-worn catchphrase from 2024).

According to the latest Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries (SOPI) report released by the Economic Intelligence Unit last month, the sector looks poised for a strong recovery.

The outlook for 2025 looks good, with export earnings expected to rise by 7%, reaching $56.9 billion.

The recovery comes after a period of price drops in important exports like dairy, meat, and wool, as well as slower global growth, especially in China, New Zealand's biggest trade partner.

However, with global supplies of key agricultural products like dairy, beef, mutton, and seafood becoming tighter, export prices and the amount of goods sold are expected to improve in 2025.

Dairy remains the golden child, with export revenue forecast to grow by 10% to $25.5 billion in the year to June 30, 2025.

Horticulture, still recovering from the impact of Cyclone Gabrielle, looks to be making a strong recovery. Export revenue is expected to grow by 12% to reach $8 billion, thanks mainly to Kiwi Fruit.

Wine exports, which have struggled over the past year, are projected to recover, driven by demand from markets such as the U.S. and U.K.

Arable has a forecasted growth of 4% to $360 million.

Meat and wool export revenue is forecast to increase slightly to $11.4 billion in the year to 30 June 2025, with rising prices offsetting declines in export volumes.

So, things look promising (mostly).

As Will Rogers said, "The farmer has to be an optimist, or he wouldn't be a farmer."

Wishing all of our readers and advertisers a prosperous and Happy New Year.

Here's to a better 2025.

By Claire Inkson